Art and Science in Baseball 2021

While statistics were always a staple in baseball, the use of in-depth stats by the Oakland Athletics started a trend in professional baseball that shows no signs of letting up.  As we approach the 20th anniversary of the ground-breaking book Moneyball, a majority of professional baseball teams have made statistical analysis a dominant factor in their business philosophy.

Most coaches, players, and fans would admit that statistical analysis has allowed professional teams to develop a lot of new information that greatly assists in evaluating prospects and players. Where teams formerly relied on eye-witness assessments by “expert” scouts, this info is now supplemented by huge volumes of big data on each prospect and player.

The success of statistics in player evaluation has led professional teams to apply statistics as a dominant tool in player development and in game strategy where their success has been debatable.  Further, as voiced by Theo Epstein, a leader of the stat evolution, the reliance on statistics in game strategy has changed the game in a way that has made the games less interesting and enjoyable for fans, the people who pay the bills in this billion dollar industry.  The idea of the fans bailing out has gotten play recently from baseball writers who generally swallowed the statistical approach hook, line, and sinker, as the “next big thing”.  Baseball writers have championed statistical analysis, as it allows sports commentators with minimal baseball knowledge, who never played, to read and quote statistical parameters without having to watch the games. 

While the media and owners were celebrating the success of statistical methods, veteran players and fans have questioned changes in player development and game strategy that continue to provide situations in which players are unable to make contact with a pitch, advance baserunners, or drive the ball through massive holes created by defensive over-shifts. Sabermetics experts have generally denigrated bunting,  advancing runners, place-hitting, clutch hitting, and even RBIs, based on theories they have never proven.

I know a little about proving theories, as I began my career as a scientist.  Besides a burning interest in baseball, the second half of my own life has been dedicated to running a business.  Science and business each have had their own statistical revolutions in which statistics proved to add value to many decisions.

After World War II, an army of MBAs entered the business world hoping to remake it in their image. As in baseball, there was an immediate contest between those who had been run businesses from know-how and experience, versus young MBAs who worked from books, binders, and computers.  Deeper statistical analysis was integrated into most businesses, so nobody reaches the top in business today without understanding the use of statistics.  However, top business managers are rarely statisticians, or accountants.

The lesson is that statistical analysis is a necessary, but not sufficient know-how to run a business or to perform scientific studies.  My guess is that the same will prove true in baseball.

Like business, baseball keeps score, and everybody wants to copy the organizations that are seen as the most successful.   Let us hope that, in the near future, while continuing the statistical practices that have helped them to better identify talent and value, some teams will reassess player development and game management methods and game management strategies that stress metrics over teaching players how to play the game.

Like business, baseball is a mixture of art and science.  As a scientist, I already knew that that watching scientists is boring as hell.  On the other hand, watching artists can be very exciting.

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